European elections will show how Britain really feels about Brexit – of course the government wants to avoid it

It’s amazing how many times in the Brexit process we have been told that something unthinkable or impossible for the government to countenance has come to pass. The prospect of Britain going to the polls on 23 May to elect MEPs is the latest such example. But how likely is it? We shouldn’t underestimate how strong the desire of both main parties to avoid the elections will be. For the Conservative Party, the problem is obvious: few Remainers will vote for it, but Leavers are also now offside in large numbers – Conservatives will hope temporarily – due to the failure to deliver Brexit on time. Brexit has consumed the government to such an extent that there is precious little other reason to vote for it. This hypothesis was backed up by polling data this weekend. For Labour, the problem is more subtle. It would need to produce a manifesto, which would surely force it to end its policy of constructive ambiguity and state, in black and white, what its position actually is on a confirmatory public vote.