Realism is set to strike the EU over the Brexit timescale

The biggest danger of the Brexit extension is a delusion over time. The UK does not really have more than five months to make a decision. In reality, the effective timescale is just a few weeks. Once this drags beyond the scheduled elections of the European Parliament in late May, we enter a world of uncertain scenarios. The divisions that emerged among EU member states during the meeting of the European Council on April 10 are serious. But it would be wrong to characterise the debate as one between France and the rest. Several leaders supported Emmanuel Macron. Come October, the threat is not one of a veto by the French president, but of a shifting consensus. Heiko Maas, the German foreign minister, said in an FT interview that he believed the October deadline was hard. This is becoming a wider consensus view in Germany. Mr Macron is not isolated. He is winning the argument.