Covid-19: global vaccine production is a mess and shortages are down to more than just hoarding

In March 2021 drug manufacturers predicted that 12 billion doses of covid-19 vaccine, enough to fully immunise at least 70% of the world’s population, could be manufactured by the end of the year.1 That assessment was confirmed in September in a report by the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations,2 though it also warned that “most doses in the production queue are already allocated” to high income countries. At the time of writing, only 1.3% of people in low income countries have received their jabs. Seventy countries have yet to vaccinate 10% of their populations, and 30 countries—including much of Africa—have vaccinated fewer than 2%.3 In Latin America, only one in four of the population has received a dose of covid vaccine.