English lockdown might have reduced COVID-19 infections more than thought, scientists say

The reproductive number of COVID-19 in England may been lower than previously thought in May, research published by British scientists said on Wednesday, suggesting the government’s COVID-19 lockdown worked to reduce infection rates. The study - which is a “pre-print”, meaning it has yet to be peer-reviewed - found there were on average 13 positive cases for every 10,000 people, with an overall reproduction number of 0.57. That is lower than the government’s official figures for that time, estimating a so-called “R” number of 0.7-0.9 when lockdown was eased. An R number of less than 1 indicates an epidemic is shrinking. “Our level of adherence in the UK, and the overall average behaviour was very effective at reducing transmission of the virus,” Steven Riley, Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics, Imperial College London, told reporters.