Column: Public confidence, often inscrutable, pivotal for recovery

Public confidence in virus control, rather than the length and stringency of government lockdowns, may be the best way to gauge how economies emerge from this year’s pandemic - though tracking that confidence can be a bewildering business. Apparent gaps between what people are saying and doing complicate the task facing economists in assessing confidence, and how economies are expected to heal - at least before the arrival of a game-changing vaccine that’s still likely to be at least six months away. Britain provided an example of this confusion last week, with retail sales volumes returning to pre-pandemic levels in July despite consumer confidence polls remaining mired in gloom close to 10-year lows for the past two months. There’s a similar picture in the United States, where consumer confidence readings are also stuck near six-year lows even as retail sales return to their highest on record in July.