Why the modelling behind Melbourne's extended stage 4 lockdown is problematic | Joshua Gans

A different, more traditional, model would have suggested a more granulated location-based (eg local authority or postcode group) easing of restrictions, achieving the same result with fewer economic and social costs. There can be no doubt the stage four lockdown, introduced at 6pm on Sunday 2 August, has achieved spectacular results. Usually in an upswing, measures take two or more weeks to have an effect. But in Victoria the decline was dramatic. That doesn’t mean costs don’t matter. The delays inherent in the extension and reopening plan are considerable. It works like this: