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Victoria's roadmap out of Covid lockdown is 'a sledgehammer approach', expert says


The Victorian government has “taken a sledgehammer approach” to its roadmap out of lockdown “when a hammer may have been just as effective”, Deakin’s chair of epidemiology Prof Catherine Bennett has said. Bennett said it was important for the public to understand that the model, developed by computer scientists and epidemiologists from the University of Melbourne, assumed all cases of Covid-19 in the community were randomly distributed, and that all cases are mixing in the community in the same way. In reality, many cases are already in isolation, or are part of outbreaks in workplaces where transmission and movements may be different. “Now, two-thirds of our cases are in health or aged care workers and their household contacts, and a third of cases are out in the community,” Bennett said. “So assuming we have 60 new cases per day by next weekend, that really means there would be roughly 20 community cases.”

The Guardian - September 9, 2020

View the full story here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/09/victorias-roadmap-out-of-covid-lockdown-is-a-sledgehammer-approach-expert-says