"COVID-19 Lockdown Exit Analysis" 23rd Apr 2021
Overnight NewsRoundUp
COVID-19 hospitalizations tumble among U.S. senior citizens
- COVID-19 hospitalizations among older Americans have plunged more than 70% since the start of 2021, and deaths among them appear to have tumbled as well, dramatic evidence the vaccination campaign is working. Now the trick is to get more of the nation's younger people to roll up their sleeves.
- The drop-off in severe cases among Americans 65 and older is especially encouraging because senior citizens have accounted for about 8 out of 10 deaths from the virus since it hit the U.S., where the toll stands at about 570,000.
- 'What you're seeing is exactly what we hoped for and wanted to see: As really high rates of vaccinations happen, hospitalizations and death rates come down,' said Jodie Guest, a public health researcher at Emory University. The best available data suggests COVID-19 deaths among Americans 65 and older have declined more than 50% since their peak in January.
- The figures indicate that the fall in deaths among senior citizens is vindicating the strategy of putting elderly people at or near the front of the line for shots when the vaccine became available last winter.
- The U.S. trends mirror what is happening in other countries with high vaccination rates, such as Israel and the UK, and stand in stark contrast to the worsening disaster in places like India and Brazil, which lag far behind in dispensing shots.
- 'My concern now is whether the vaccine uptake will be as strong in younger groups,' Jodie Guest said, 'If it is not, we will not see the positive impact for vaccines in these younger age groups that we've seen in our older populations.'
- Also, new virus cases in the U.S. have been stuck at worrisome levels since march, averaging more than 60,000 cases per day, matching numbers seen during last summer's virus surge. The new cases are increasingly among young people in their 30s, 40s and 50s, who also make up a large portion of hospitalizations.
- In Michigan, which has been battered by a recent surge of infections, hospitalization among people in their 50s has increased by 700% since late February, outpacing all other age groups.
- Physicians in Seattle say they are seeing fewer COVID-19 patients overall, fewer needing critical care and fewer needing breathing machines. These younger patients are also more likely to survive.
- With enough people vaccinated, COVID-19 cases should eventually begin to fall as the virus finds fewer and fewer people to infect. Experts say Israel appeared to reach that threshold last month after it fully vaccinated roughly 40% of its population of 9 million people.
- 'To really feel that we're out of the woods we've got to see a lot less cases than we are seeing now,' Dr Jesse Goodman, a vaccine specialist at Georgetown University said. 'It is going to take a wider, continuing effort.'
- 'That feeling of dread is slowly beginning to ease with older patients getting vaccinated,' said Dr Tipu Puri, a kidney specialist and associate chief medical officer for clinical operations at University of Chicago Medical Center. 'That is what coming out of the pandemic is starting to feel like.'
COVID-19 hospitalizations tumble among US senior citizens
COVID-19 hospitalizations tumble among US senior citizens
COVID-19 hospitalizations among older Americans have plunged more than 70% since the start of the year, and deaths among them appear to have tumbled as well, dramatic evidence the vaccination campaign is working. Now the trick is to get more of the nation’s younger people to roll up their sleeves. The drop-off in severe cases among Americans 65 and older is especially encouraging because senior citizens have accounted for about 8 out of 10 deaths from the virus since it hit the U.S., where the toll stands at about 570,000. COVID-19 deaths among people of all ages in the U.S. have plummeted to about 700 per day on average, compared with a peak of over 3,400 in mid-January. “What you’re seeing there is exactly what we hoped and wanted to see: As really high rates of vaccinations happen, hospitalizations and death rates come down,” said Jodie Guest, a public health researcher at Emory University.
Almost one-third of health care workers thought about leaving jobs: poll
Burned out by the pandemic, 3 in 10 health-care workers consider leaving the profession
The doctor’s bag now sits in his closet gathering dust. He lost his stethoscope somewhere in the house — a familiar weight that sat on his neck for two decades.
It’s been months since Justin Meschler, 48, practiced medicine. And he wonders if he ever will again. He quit his job as an anesthesiologist during the pandemic last spring when fear began seeping into every part of his life. And what began as a few months off has now turned into something much longer.
Almost one-third of health care workers thought about leaving jobs: poll
Almost one-third of health care workers considered leaving their jobs during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new Washington Post-Kaiser Family Foundation poll released Thursday. Twenty-nine percent of health care workers said they “considered no longer working in health care,” while 71 percent said they never thought about changing their careers. The survey underscores the strain health care workers have been under since the start of the pandemic. Fifty-five percent of the workers said they felt “burned out,” 62 percent said the pandemic had a negative impact on their mental health and 47 percent said they either had trouble sleeping or are sleeping too much as a result of the stress.
Nation Faces ‘Hand-to-Hand Combat’ to Get Reluctant Americans Vaccinated
Nation Faces ‘Hand-to-Hand Combat’ to Get Reluctant Americans Vaccinated
Now that President Biden has met his goal to have all adults eligible for the coronavirus vaccine, health officials around the country are hitting what appears to be a soft ceiling: More than half the nation’s adults have received at least one dose, but it is going to take hard work — and some creative changes in strategy — to convince the rest. State health officials, business leaders, policymakers and politicians are struggling to figure out how to tailor their messages, and their tactics, to persuade not only the vaccine hesitant but also the indifferent. Officials in many states are looking past mass vaccination sites and toward having patients get vaccinated by their own doctors, where people are most at ease — a shift that will require the Biden administration to ship vaccine in much smaller quantities.
How India Became the Coronavirus Pandemic Ground Zero
How India Became the Coronavirus Pandemic Ground Zero
India is now the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic. Just weeks ago, it was registering around 50,000 new daily cases. On Thursday, the country registered nearly 315,000 new cases in a 24-hour period—a new pandemic world record. India’s COVID-19 curve has nearly become a vertical line. Thursday was also India’s deadliest day yet, and concerns about underreporting mean the toll may be higher. A new Lancet study warns that if the situation in India fails to improve, it could suffer 2,300 daily deaths by June. Critics have in part faulted New Delhi for its imperious handling of the current crisis, which appears driven by the spread of a new variant. The government was slow to respond, even though it knew a ferocious second wave was possible by late last year. As Kunal Purohit writes in Foreign Policy, “India is hurtling toward a public health emergency.” The public health situation is already dire: India is collapsing under the weight of disease and death. Hospitals are dangerously low on oxygen, and patients are sharing beds. In Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state, crematorium furnaces are melting from overuse. And although India launched a mass vaccination campaign in January, it now faces major shortages, in part because it exported millions of vaccines abroad earlier this year.
World’s highest daily rise in COVID cases in India, record deaths
India has reported more than 300,000 coronavirus cases over the last 24 hours, the highest daily global total, while COVID-19-related deaths also jumped by a record, as a brutal second wave raises fears about the ability of the country’s health services to cope. India’s daily jump of 314,835 cases on Thursday surpasses the previous highest one-day rise in the world of 297,430 cases posted by the United States in January.
Some Delhi hospitals have no oxygen, says minister
India has reported a global record of more than 314,000 new infections on Thursday as a brutal second wave of coronavirus cases sends more and more sick people into a fragile healthcare system critically short of hospital beds and medical oxygen. The infections added in the past 24 hours, mostly attributed to a so-called double mutant variant, raise India’s total past 15.9 million cases since the pandemic began.
Covid: India sees world's highest daily cases amid oxygen shortage
India has recorded the highest one-day tally of new Covid-19 cases anywhere in the world - and the country's highest number of deaths over 24 hours. It has close to 16 million confirmed cases, second only to the US. The country is struggling with a second wave, raising more fears about its overwhelmed health care system. Crowds have formed outside hospitals in major cities which are filled to capacity. A number of people have died while waiting for oxygen. Families are waiting hours to perform funeral rites, Reuters news agency reports, with at least one Delhi crematorium resorting to building pyres in its car park in order to cope with the numbers arriving.
India Hits Global Record for Daily New Covid-19 Cases
India reported more than 314,000 new coronavirus cases, the world’s biggest ever single-day jump of new infections, as the country struggled to keep a surge of infections from overwhelming its healthcare system. Hospitals in New Delhi and other hard-hit cities have been turning away patients and running low on oxygen, beds and other medical supplies. “We are in dire need of oxygen,” said Dr. A.C. Shukla, head of the intensive-care unit at Delhi’s Mata Chanan Devi hospital. “Suppliers have stopped answering our calls.” Coronavirus cases in India have exceeded 200,000 new daily cases for seven straight days, hitting the record Thursday.
New Delhi Hospital Rushes to Court to Get Critical Oxygen Supply
New Delhi’s largest hospital chain operator had to knock on the door of the city state’s high court Wednesday night after 1,400 Covid-19 patients across the Indian capital were put at risk due to “dangerously low” levels of oxygen supply. Two back-to-back emergency hearings ended late Wednesday night after an oxygen tanker finally left for one branch of the Max Hospital, which had over 250 Covid-19 patients in a critical state and the lowest level of crucial oxygen. The Delhi High Court’s two-judge panel headed by Justice Vipin Sanghi expressed “shock and dismay” over the government’s neglect and directed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration to “beg, borrow, steal” but ensure adequate oxygen supply for hospitals.
‘The system has collapsed’: India’s descent into Covid hell
India has descended into a tragedy of unprecedented proportions. Almost 1.6 million Covid-19 cases have been registered in a week, bringing total cases to more than 15 million. In the space of just 12 days, the Covid positivity rate doubled to 17%, while in Delhi it hit 30%. Hospitals across the country have filled to capacity but this time it is predominately the young taking up the beds; in Delhi, 65% of cases are under 40 years old. While the unprecedented spread of the virus has been partly blamed on a more contagious variant that has emerged in India, Modi’s government has also been accused of failures of political leadership from the top, with lax attitudes emulated by state and local leaders from all parties and even health officials across the country, which led many to falsely believe in recent months that India had defeated Covid.
Over 1,700 doses of coronavirus vaccine stolen from hospital in Haryana
The matter came to light when a sanitation worker found the locks of the store and deep freezer broken. Over 1,700 doses of anti-coronavirus vaccine were stolen from a government hospital in Haryana's Jind, a police official said on Thursday.
The incident took place at the civil hospital in Jind on Wednesday night. A total of 1,270 doses of Covishield and 440 of Covaxin were stolen from the hospital, SHO of Civil Lines police station Rajender Singh said. "The accused did not touch any other vaccine, medicine, cash, etc. lying in the store," he said.
Trialling Events for COVID Safety
COVID-19: Nightclub to reopen doors in Liverpool as part of 'historic' trial
The first nightclub event in the UK for over a year is set to take place in Liverpool at the end of the month. It will be held across two nights, with nightclub Circus hosting The First Dance event, which will welcome 6,000 clubbers to the city's Bramley-Moore Dock warehouse. The event will not require any social distancing or face coverings, as it is hoped it will pave the way for more clubs to open across the country. The event is part of the national Events Research Programme (ERP), which will provide data on how events for a range of audiences could be permitted to safely reopen as part of the roadmap out of lockdown.
COVID-19: Burning Man festival may require visitors to be vaccinated before arriving
Organisers for Burning Man in the US are considering requiring festivalgoers to be vaccinated before they attend the event. Those running the festival, which is held in the Nevada desert, had said earlier in the month that COVID-19 vaccinations would be mandatory, but have now backtracked slightly following criticism from fans. Festival chief Marian Goodell admitted earlier in the week that she had "misspoke" on the issue, revealing that a decision has not yet been made on the vaccination requirement for entry.
BRIT music awards to host 4,000-strong audience in UK pilot event
Some 4,000 people will attend the BRIT Awards next month, in what organisers of Britain's pop music honours said would be the first major indoor music event with a live audience as the country emerges from COVID-19 lockdown.
COVID-19 vaccines: building and maintaining confidence
COVID-19 vaccines: building and maintaining confidence
As COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out globally, the AstraZeneca vaccine (Vaxzevria) continues to be marred in controversy, from its slow and still awaited approval by the US Food and Drug Administration amid concerns about paucity of large-scale trial data from the USA, to safety alerts around the development of rare blood clotting events coupled with thrombocytopenia, particularly cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) and splanchnic vein thrombosis (SVT). As of April 4, 2021, 169 cases of CVST and 53 cases of SVT have been reported in the European Economic Area and the UK after the administration of 34 million vaccines.
Yes, vaccines block most transmission of COVID-19
COVID-19 vaccines have provided an opportunity to slow the spread of the virus and end the pandemic. Now scientists are trying to learn just how much the vaccines can prevent transmission from occurring at all. New data from the CDC shows that COVID-19 infections do occur in vaccinated people, but they appear exceptionally rare. More than 10 million people in the United Kingdom have now been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. In the United States, that figure is 85 million people. As of April 14, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention had received reports that 5,814 fully vaccinated people had developed COVID-19 infections in the U.S. Nearly half of these infections (45 percent) were in people at least 60 years old. Seven percent of people with breakthrough infections—infections that occur after complete vaccination—were hospitalised and one percent died.
WHO and EMA to inspect Sputnik V manufacturing in May - WHO
Technical experts from the World Health Organization are due to start the next round of their review of Russia's Sputnik V vaccine against COVID-19 jointly with the European Medicines Agency on May 10, the WHO said on Thursday.
Coronavirus: Pfizer confirms fake versions of vaccine in Poland and Mexico
Coronavirus: Pfizer confirms fake versions of vaccine in Poland and Mexico
US pharmaceutical company Pfizer says it has identified counterfeit versions of its coronavirus vaccine in Mexico and Poland. The doses were seized by authorities in the two countries and confirmed by tests to be fake. In Mexico, they had false labels, while the substance in Poland was believed to be anti-wrinkle treatment, Pfizer said. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that fake vaccines "pose a serious risk to global public health". It has called for them to be identified and removed from circulation.
Dealing with Manufacturing Shortfalls
EU yet to decide on legal case against AstraZeneca over shortfall
The European Commission has said no decision had yet been taken on whether to launch legal action against AstraZeneca over a shortfall in deliveries of coronavirus vaccine doses, after Ireland’s health minister said the case had been initiated. Health Minister Stephen Donnelly on Thursday told the Irish parliament that “a legal case has been initiated by the commission and earlier this week I have joined Ireland as one of the parties to that legal case.”
EU says Valneva has not met conditions for vaccine supply deal
French vaccine maker Valneva (VLS.PA) has not met the conditions to conclude talks on a deal with the European Union to supply the bloc with its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, a spokesman for the European Commission said on Thursday.
EU preps legal action against AstraZeneca for COVID-19 vaccine shortfalls: report
AstraZeneca has maintained a rocky relationship with the European Union after failing to live up to its COVID-19 vaccine delivery expectations. Now, the two appear headed to court over the issue. The European Commission is reportedly readying legal proceedings against the vaccine developer for failing to provide its promised supply of COVID-19 doses to the region, Politico reports, citing six EU diplomats familiar with the matter. AstraZeneca originally committed to sending Europe 90 million doses of its vaccine in the first three months of the year. But after struggling to get its supply chain up to speed, the company knocked that projection down to 30 million.
COVID-19: Ireland joins possible legal action against AstraZeneca over vaccine supplies
Ireland has joined European Commission plans for possible legal action against AstraZeneca over its "complete failure" to meet delivery and contractual agreements, its health minister has said. Speaking to the Irish parliament, Stephen Donnelly said on Thursday: "With regard to AstraZeneca, a legal case has been initiated by the Commission and earlier this week I have joined Ireland as one of the parties to that legal case, specifically around AstraZeneca's complete failure to meet its delivery and contractual agreements for April, May and June." But a European Commission spokesperson said: "The decision to take legal action has not been taken at this point in time."
FDA reveals depth of manufacturing issues at Emergent Biosolutions
In addition to safety questions about its COVID-19 vaccine, Johnson & Johnson (J&J) is facing manufacturing challenges as a key partner, Emergent Biosolutions Inc., has yet to get FDA approval to manufacture or distribute the vaccine or its components in the U.S. That approval could be awhile in coming. On April 21, a day after completing its onsite inspection of Emergent’s Bayview plant in Baltimore, Md., the FDA released Form 483 from its inspection, revealing nine observations related to cross-contamination issues, lack of employee training and poorly designed and maintained facilities.
Norway to lend unused AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Sweden, Iceland
Norway will lend 216,000 doses of the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) COVID-19 vaccine it has in stock to Sweden and Iceland, the country’s health ministry said on Thursday, enabling the two Nordic neighbours to speed up their inoculation campaigns.
Norway on March 11 suspended the rollout of the vaccine after a small number of younger people were hospitalised for a combination of blood clots, bleeding and a low count of platelets, some of whom later died. Sweden and Iceland will be able to receive the doses from Norway for as long as the AstraZeneca vaccine rollout is suspended.
Testing, Studies and Results
Effectiveness of rapid Covid-19 tests to be tested in 200 schools
Scientists have begun trialling rapid lateral flow tests across 200 schools in England in an effort to prove the accuracy and effectiveness of the controversial technology. Students and staff will be offered weekly tests using lateral flow devices (LFDs). Half the participating schools will then offer daily tests to students who have come into close contact with known Covid-19 sufferers, to enable them to avoid quarantine, while the rest — the control group — will make such students quarantine for 10 days. Researchers involved in the study hope the research will prove that the tests can effectively pick up cases of infectious disease, providing evidence to counter the pervasive scepticism surrounding the value of LFDs, which have been rolled out in large numbers since late last year.
Government launches Antivirals Taskforce to identify at-home COVID-19 treatments
A new Antivirals Taskforce has been launched by the government to identify treatments for UK patients who have been exposed to COVID-19 to stop the infection spreading and speed up recovery time. The taskforce will search for the most promising novel antiviral medicines that can be taken at home and support their development through clinical trials to ensure they can be rapidly rolled out to patients as early as the autumn. The aim is to have at least 2 effective treatments this year, either in a tablet or capsule form, that the public can take at home following a positive COVID-19 test or exposure to someone with the virus. The taskforce will also look at opportunities to onshore the manufacture of antiviral treatments.
Oxford, Prenetics to take their COVID-19 rapid testing tech to other infectious diseases
While most of the world can’t wait to leave the COVID-19 pandemic and its many disastrous accouterments behind, researchers are hoping at least one aspect of the outbreak sticks around: the prevalence of rapid molecular testing. To that end, the University of Oxford, its Oxford Suzhou Centre for Advanced Research (OSCAR) in China and Prenetics, a Hong Kong-based test maker, have partnered to further develop the technology behind Oxford’s rapid COVID test so that it can be used to diagnose other infectious diseases around the world. The OxLAMP COVID-19 test has shown promising results: It can detect the presence of the virus with 96% sensitivity in just 20 minutes and can be processed outside of a traditional lab setting.
Double masking amid COVID-19 not backed by research, experts say
A study concluding that wearing a disposable medical procedure mask under a reusable cloth face covering protects the wearer against COVID-19 infection better than a mask alone has some scientists worried that it could inadvertently lead to a false sense of security, risky behaviors, and infections. The study, one of a series on pandemic face coverings funded partially by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), was published on Apr 16 in JAMA Internal Medicine. The CDC used the studies as a basis for its Apr 6 updated face covering guidelines, which call for the use of a multilayered cloth mask or a disposable mask under a cloth mask to press the edges of the disposable mask against the face.
The Suicide Wave That Never Was
In January, The New York Times published an alarming article about teen suicides during the pandemic. The story featured heartbreaking quotes from parents who had lost children, and was illustrated with photos of an empty classroom and a teenager sitting alone on his bed. The school district of Clark County, Nevada, the story said, had recorded the deaths of 18 students from suicide from mid-March 2020 to the end of December—twice as many as the district had in all of 2019. “There’s a sense of urgency,” the superintendent told NPR, when the same local crisis made national news again in February. “You know, we have a problem.”
After coronavirus vaccine failures, France laments the state of its biomedical R&D
On 25 January, as France’s third pandemic wave gathered force, Christophe d’Enfert, scientific director of the Pasteur Institute, appeared on national TV with a grim duty: explaining how the venerable institute, named after vaccine pioneer Louis Pasteur, had given up on its most advanced COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Around the same time, French drug giant Sanofi said its own contenders were delayed—and that it would cut hundreds of French jobs. Today, France remains the only nation on the U.N. Security Council without a viable vaccine. To d’Enfert, it “brings into question our capacity not only to do very high-level fundamental research, but also to transform this into innovation.”
California goes from worst to first in virus infections
Just a few months ago, California was the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. Hospitals in Los Angeles were drowning in patients, and ambulances were idling outside with people struggling to breathe,
Patent Waivers - Will they boost vaccine production or not?
We’re Asking Rich Countries to Keep Their Vaccine Promises
Almost one billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines have been administered around the world, and yet the weekly number of cases hit a record high last week, and deaths are climbing, on pace to eclipse 2020’s grim tally. How can this be? Weren’t vaccines supposed to douse the flames of the pandemic? Yes, and they are. But here’s the thing about an inferno: If you hose only one part of it, the rest will keep burning. Many countries all over the world are facing a severe crisis, with high transmission and intensive care units overflowing with patients and running short on essential supplies, like oxygen.
MSF urges rich countries to back COVID vaccine patent waiver
International medical charity Doctors Without Borders (Medecins Sans Frontieres, or MSF) has urged rich countries to stop blocking a patent waiver plan that could boost the global production of coronavirus vaccines. Members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will meet virtually for informal talks on Thursday to discuss a proposal to waive intellectual property rights for producing COVID-19 vaccines and other coronavirus-related medical tools for the duration of the pandemic. Sponsors of the waiver argue that the temporary suspension would allow more factories worldwide to produce jabs without breaking international rules under the WTO agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS). But the proposal, originally submitted in October by India and South Africa, has met staunch opposition from several high-income members, many of which are home to major drug-makers – such as the United States and members of the European Union.
Why waiving patents might not boost global access to coronavirus vaccines
Global trade negotiators are deadlocked on a proposal that would have been unthinkable before the pandemic — to suspend intellectual property rights on coronavirus medical products so that less-wealthy countries can develop life-saving vaccines and other goods on their own. A months-long debate at the World Trade Organization has led to little, if any, movement. On Thursday, diplomats meet again and will likely rehash their positions, with the EU, U.K, and Switzerland in the wealthy camp opposing the proposal. That effectively leaves the idea stranded in a process that functions on consensus. But the proposal, pitched by South Africa and India at the WTO, is still gaining traction politically as the gap in vaccination rates between rich and poor countries grows by the day. Meanwhile, manufacturers have struggled to keep up with demand.
Norway to lend unused AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Sweden, Iceland
Norway to lend unused AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Sweden, Iceland
Norway will lend 216,000 doses of the AstraZeneca (AZN.L) COVID-19 vaccine it has in stock to Sweden and Iceland, the country’s health ministry said on Thursday, enabling the two Nordic neighbours to speed up their inoculation campaigns.
Norway on March 11 suspended the rollout of the vaccine after a small number of younger people were hospitalised for a combination of blood clots, bleeding and a low count of platelets, some of whom later died. Sweden and Iceland will be able to receive the doses from Norway for as long as the AstraZeneca vaccine rollout is suspended.