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"Environmental Hazards Newsletter" 3rd May 2018

News Highlights

Hello everyone and welcome to April’s news roundup of global Environmental Hazards coverage.

April’s highlights include reporting on fears that the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, will be worse than usual. The Earthquake section highlights a USGS study entitled “The Hay-Wired Earthquake Scenario,” which explains how the public can better prepare for a major earthquake. There is also a review of a book written by Lucy Jones, a science advisor for risk reduction for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

A variety of April articles examined the impact of Extreme Temperatures more closely. Joyce Coffee posed an interesting question in Triplepundit.com ‘if we, as a human race, have managed to learn valuable ancient lessons about the consequence of concern climate change or are we doomed to repeat past mistakes?’ In reports elsewhere, the IMD (The Indian Meteorological Department) is predicting above normal temperatures between April and June in India.

The Volcanoes section looks at possible links between climate change and volcanic eruptions. There are also stories about scientists from the University of Aberdeen creating the world`s first 3D thermal image of an active volcano (video).  Then there are stories about eruption warnings in Chile and Mexico.

There is U.S. coverage of Wildfires – focusing in on the blazes raging across Oklahoma, Colorado and Kansas, with some reporting looking closer at potential links between climate change and wildfires, as well as the cascading impact of these destructive events.

The Landslides section moved the attention of readers towards deadly mudslides in China and Kenya. It also highlighted an appeal by residents battling to remain in their homes after a series of landslips in Ystalyfera (Wales).

Finally, Floods explored the crisis engulfing Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, pointing to warnings that makeshift shelters in Bangladeshi camps could be destroyed by a toxic combination of mudslides and flooding.

Hurricanes and Cyclones
USDA to provide $2.36B for wildfire, hurricane recovery
The USDA will make disaster payments up to $2.36 billion, as provided by Congress, to help America’s farmers and ranchers recover from hurricanes and wildfires.
Forecasters Are Warning This Year's Hurricane Season Will Be Worse Than Usual
Forecasters say the chances of a major hurricane landfall along the East Coast or Florida's peninsula are 39 percent, above the last half-century average at 31 percent. That scale pegs a Category 3 storm as having sustained winds between 111 and 129 miles per hour.
Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate Retired
Due to the extensive damage caused in the United States and Caribbean last year, the World Meteorological Organization’s Region IV Hurricane Committee has officially retired Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate as names to be used to label tropical storms. Storm names are retired if they were so deadly or destructive that the future use of the name would be insensitive - otherwise names are reused by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center on a six-year cycle. The committee also selected the replacement names for Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate with Harold, Idalia, Margot and Nigel respectively that will first appear in the 2023 list of storm names.
Hurricanes slowing down in just about every ocean on Earth
Research shows slower storms in recent years have produced heavier rainfall, according to the presentation by James Kossin of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.
Climate change-fueled migration will add to global instability
Whether planned or not, migration movements caused in whole or in part by climate change will be part of the future. A 2016 report by the US National Intelligence Council highlighted what many other researchers have also noted: “Over 20 years, the net effects of climate change on the patterns of global human movement and statelessness could be dramatic, perhaps unprecedented.”
10 Weather Myths Everyone Gets Wrong
An insight on the wrong perceptions people have about basic weather facts.
INTERVIEW-New storm forecasting methods mark 'huge leap forward' - U.S. official
The director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center said new ways of forecasting extreme weather events, including identifying storms before they fully develop, mark a "huge leap forward in the science of hurricanes".
How Deep Learning Is Mitigating Climate Change Threats
Machine learning and deep learning are now helping detect extreme weather conditions and predict climate changes, which is turning out to be a crucial step towards building a sustainable environment without compromising vital resources of the earth.
CFAN Takes the Lead in the Race to Provide Better Forecasts of Hurricane Paths
Public and private sector scientists are racing to provide hurricane forecasts that provide better warnings. In 2017, Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) provided more accurate Atlantic hurricane track forecasts than those of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the official forecasts of NOAA?s National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters plan storm-readiness mission in Caribbean and Mexico
National Hurricane Center (NHC) director Ken Graham and several federal hurricane specialists will visit with residents of vulnerable communities and discuss hurricane preparedness, resilience and how they can become “weather-ready.” Among their stops will be Jamaica on April 27 and Puerto Rico the following day.
Geoscience professor Gabriel Vecchi clarifies future hurricane predictions
Geosciences professor Gabriel Vecchi gave a talk concerning the potential future trends of hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
Fiji bracing for category 3 Cyclone Keni
The country's Meteorological Service is warning the cyclone could make landfall over southwest Viti Levu around midday today. Winds at the centre are around 130 km/h with gusts up to 185 km/h. The Disaster Management Office is urging residents to have a three day emergency kit at hand.
Can Cold Air Bubbles Prevent Destructive Hurricanes From Forming?
With memories of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, which ravaged Texas, Florida, and Puerto Rico in 2017, still fresh in their minds, residents of the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are bracing for yet another busy hurricane season. Researchers at Colorado State University predict a slightly above-average 2018 season with 14 tropical storms, at least three of which are expected to be major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher!
Let’s Build Fiji Stronger Together To Withstand Mother Nature’s Wrath
Preparedness strategies have been implemented in Fiji to prepare vulnerable communities to the incoming hurricane season. The training, which is funded by the Government through the Ministry of Rural and Maritime Development, Disaster Management and Meteorological Services, intends to equip rural dwellers with skills and techniques to construct quality and durable homes.
Bahamas Facing 'Hard Choices' On $710m Storm Woe
The Bahamas has been warned that "the era of tough choices has arrived" after Hurricanes Matthew and Irma caused a combined $710 million in economic damages and loss.
At least four dead as Cyclone Josie hits Fiji
At least four people were killed and another was missing in Fiji after Cyclone Josie caused severe flooding in the South Pacific island nation, local media reported.
Extreme Temperatures
Why Africans need to support the Marine Arctic Peace Sanctuary Project
Dr. Gbujie Daniel a Climate Reality Project fellow, calls for Africans to support the Marine Arctic Peace Sanctuary project (MAPS).
Students evacuated in southern France as heavy snow surprises them during hike
Extreme weather patterns are affecting crops in the US.
7 things we’ve learned about Earth since the last Earth Day
Here are seven of the most troubling and encouraging things we learned about the Earth since the last Earth Day.
Cullman County Hailstone sets four extreme climate records in Alabama, per NOAA
NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) released Friday additional information regarding the hailstone that fell in Cullman County on March 19, 2018.
Climate change threat
On this Earth Week, environmental advocates talk about their efforts to raise awareness and get more people to pay attention to climate change. From extreme weather, and shorter ski seasons, to the threat of new invasive species and changes in habit for songbirds and wildlife, they say climate change is having a dramatic impact on the Adirondacks.
Trump's new Nasa chief Jim Bridenstine a 'climate change denier' who could make 'terrifying' decisions, US senators warn
As Tea Party congressman is appointed to head Nasa, senators warn of 'terrifying' danger that a man who has 'made a career out of ignoring science' might disregard scientific advice about the safety of a space launch
We Survived Climate Change Eons Ago, but Could We Survive Today? Not Unless We Act Much More Swiftly Immediately
An insight into the abrupt shift in past extreme climate conditions which triggered population crashes and cultural changes.
Australia must build to withstand extreme weather
Sustainable building techniques should be implemented in the Australian construction industry in view of deteriorating climate conditions.
IMD Predicts Summer to be Hotter Than Normal This Year
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted warmer days in most parts of India this year. There will be above normal temperatures between April and June. Last year was regarded as the hottest year till now. And this year also some parts will witness intense heat wave conditions. The IMD, however, said the temperatures in east, east-central and southern India, which include Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, are likely to be lower than the usual, indicating that the onset of monsoon will be on time. India has long suffered deadly heatwaves. Periods of extreme temperatures have led to thousands of deaths since the 1990s, largely in rural areas where basic infrastructure is poor.
Wind gust in Friday's storm strongest in eight years
The strongest wind gust in eight years was recorded during Friday's thunderstorm which battered several farms in Lim Chu Kang. Wind speed hit a high of 133.3kmh at nearby Tengah at 3.50pm, said the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) yesterday. "This is the strongest wind gust recorded on our islandwide network of wind sensors since 2010," it added. The highest-recorded wind gust is 144.4kmh, also in Tengah, on April 25, 1984.
Earthquakes
USGS confirms 3.6 magnitude earthquake rattled Detroit
The U.S. Geological Survey has confirmed a 3.6 magnitude earthquake occurred Thursday just across the border in Canada. The USGS said the quake's epicenter was 15.5 miles south of Detroit in Amherstburg, Ontario. Thousands of residents in Michigan said they felt tremors around 8:15 p.m. Thursday.
San Francisco area fault could produce devastating earthquake
A new study by the US Geological Survey (USGS) has revealed the shocking potential of an earthquake generated by the Hayward fault, a 52-mile fault that stretches throughout the San Francisco Bay Area, which is home to millions of people.
The Next Big Bay Area Earthquake Could Kill Hundreds, Strand 20,000 In Elevators
The U.S. Geological Survey has spearheaded a project to simulate what the aftermath of a 7.0-magnitude earthquake along the Bay Area's Hayward Fault - dubbed the "HayWired scenario" - could look like. The results are disconcerting to say the least, beginning with the potential for 800 deaths and $100 billion in economic losses.
‘Earthquake Lady’ Relates Her Decades of Understanding Science and Disasters
Lucy Jones has written a book, appropriately titled, Big Ones: How Natural Disasters Have Shaped Us (and What We Can Do About Them). Jones said the book is really a summation of the things she’s learned in her career about how disasters, and impending ones, affect humans and how she learned to express her scientific knowledge in a way that most of us could understand and in a way that would motivate people to act.
Yellowstone volcano eruption: Millions trapped in kill zone of hot ash and lava
USGS scientists Larry Mastin and Jacob Lowenstern, and National Science Foundation researcher Alexa Van Eaton, published a study estimating where Yellowstone ash would fall if it erupted today.
Sounds of Eruptions Used to Describe Volcanoes
A new case study done by a team of international scientists led by UC Santa Barbara geophysicist Robin Matoza examined data from the 2015 eruption of the Calbuco volcano in Chile using a network from the United Nations’ International Monitoring System (IMS), to track volcanic eruptions in remote locations.
Something’s Going On At Yellowstone: Earthquake Swarm Ongoing For 5 Weeks
The Yellowstone earthquake swarm has been going on for little over five weeks now with no end in sight. As you may know, this is especially terrifying considering the super volcano that calls Yellowstone home. Researchers have recorded well over 1,200 earthquakes at Yellowstone National Park. This phenomenon has been being monitored by several seismologists from the University of Utah since it first began around June 12th. Although this activity is cause for alarm experts do not think these events will cause any sort of eruption from the super volcano.
PNG earthquake: Women and children facing "double trauma" from
The recent earthquake in Papua New Guinea left local vulnerable people exposed to exploitation.
Magnitude 4.3 earthquake rattles central Taiwan
A magnitude 4.3 earthquake jolted central Taiwan's Nantou County at 12:02 a.m. Monday morning (April 2), according to the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). The epicenter of the quake was located 17.5 kilometers east-southeast of Nantou County, at a depth of 23.7 kilometers, according to CWB data. The strongest intensity of level felt from the quake was a level 4 recorded in Chanhua County, while an intensity level of 3 was felt in Nantou County, Yunlin County, Changhua County and Taichung City. An intensity level of 2 was felt in Miaoli County and Tainan City, while an intensity level of 1 was felt in Chiayi County, Hualien County, Taichung County, Kaohsiung City, Yilan County and Penghu County.
5.3-magnitude earthquake in Iran's Kurdish region leaves at least 38 casualties
An earthquake in Iranian Kurdistan’s (Rojhilat) Kermanshan Province on Sunday left at least 38 people injured, local media reported. The 5.3-magnitude earthquake rocked the western Iranian region at 1:05 p.m. (local time), a report from the seismography center affiliated with Tehran University Geophysics Institute revealed. The tremor’s epicenter was located at a depth of eight kilometers underground near the town of Sarpol-e Zahab in Kermanshan
23 injured in Iran's 5.3-magnitude earthquake
At least 23 people were injured in a 5.3-magnitude earthquake that jolted Iran's Kermanshah province on Sunday.
Waiting (And Waiting) For The Big One
Seismologist Lucy Jones explains what makes the San Andreas fault ripe for large earthquakes.
Volcanic Activity
Climate change could trigger volcanic eruptions across the world, warn scientists
Melting of ice on volcanoes can increase risk of landslides and destabilise magma ‘plumbing system’ inside, say researchers. According to Gioachino Roberti, a PhD student at the University of Clermont Auvergne, glaciers can suppress volcanic eruptions by providing mountains with structural stability
Total grain-size distribution of four subplinian–Plinian tephras from Hekla volcano, Iceland: Implications for sedimentation dynamics and eruption source parameters
Here we present TGSD data associated with Hekla volcano, which has been very active in the last few thousands of years and is located on critical aviation routes. In particular, we have reconstructed the TGSD of the initial subplinian–Plinian phases of four historical eruptions, covering a range of magma composition (andesite to rhyolite), eruption intensity (VEI 4 to 5), and erupted volume (0.2 to 1 km3).
Mass transfer processes in a post eruption hydrothermal system: Parameterisation of microgravity changes at Te Maari craters, New Zealand
Here we describe processes occurring in a hydrothermal system following the 2012 eruption of Upper Te Maari crater on Mt Tongariro, New Zealand, from observations of microgravity change and deformation. Our aim is to assess the post-eruption recovery of the system, to provide a baseline for long-term monitoring
Satellite Data Used to Detect Magma Flow in Volcanoes
Using satellite imaging, Penn State researchers for the first time identified a major magma supply into a reservoir extending almost 2 miles from the crater of a volcano in Nicaragua.
Sulfuric Volcanoes May Have Quickened Life on Earth
A new study looks at the key ingredients in the atmosphere when the first life was forming in the hopes of how living beings came into existence. The researchers from MIT and Harvard focuses on molecules known as sulfidic anions. Sulfur is an essential element to life as crucial several amino acids are sulfuric in nature.
Chile raises alert on rumbling Chillan volcano
Chile has raised the alert at the Nevados de Chillan ahead of a possible eruption at one of the most active volcanoes in Chile, after plumes of white smoke and registered tremors were reported by authorities.
What on Earth Is This Fiery Blob?
Dome fountain of episode 10, October 10–13, 1969, eruption of Kilauea Volcano. This dome fountain is about 20 m (65 ft) high. Symmetrical dome fountains such as this are rare
Is the Ring of Fire becoming more active?
Seismic restiveness in Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia is a fact of life along the "ring of fire," the horseshoe-shaped belt in the Pacific Ocean that is home to about three-quarters of the world's most active volcanoes. Yet after what some experts call a relatively subdued 20th century for seismic activity, the 21st has seen an uptick in "great" earthquakes. And the first 18 years of this century has seen about 25 significant volcano eruptions globally, compared with some 65 in the entire 20th century.
Mt Fuji eruption scenario to be studied
The Japanese Government's Central Disaster Management Council will launch the first full-scale study of evacuation and other measures to deal with massive amounts of volcanic ash that could fall in the Tokyo metropolitan area if Mt Fuji erupts.
Kilauea volcano: rare landspout phenomenon filmed over Hawaiian lava flows
A rare phenomenon was caught on camera above Hawaii’s Kīlauea volcano as it spewed out lava.
World's first 3D thermal image of volcano
Scientists from the University of Aberdeen have created the world's first 3D thermal image of an active volcano. The spectacular 3D image of Stromboli in Italy was made using high-precision cameras which are mounted to an aerial drone. The team of geoscientists from the Universities of Aberdeen and Oslo created the image by using drone technology to develop a technique that can detect subtle changes in the behavior of the volcano, providing more accurate information on the likelihood of an eruption.
Using Infrasound Sensors to Detect and Monitor Remote Volcanic Eruptions
The framework of the United Nations’ Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, an International Monitoring System was created to discover any nuclear explosion on Earth - in the atmosphere, underwater, or underground. The system includes a network for the detection of atmospheric infrasound - sound waves that have frequencies less than the lower limit of human audibility. Researchers can use this network to detect volcanic eruptions in remote locations.
Volcano popocatepetl on brink of eruption as Mexico fears
Popocatepetl, a “stratovolcano” located near the city, was once again awakened by a small earthquake on Friday evening. During the night vast amounts of thick smoke, along with gas and vapour, were seen pouring out of the mouth of the active volcano. Mexican authorities have set up equipment to keep monitoring the natural phenomenon, but understand its activity can be highly unpredictable. A yellow warning has been issued, urging people “not to approach” the volcano, especially the crater, due to possibility of spewing debris.
High sea levels may have shaped volcanic Mount Etna
Mount Etna may owe its iconic cone to more than just centuries of eruptions, a new study found. The study, by Dr. Iain Stewart of the University of Plymouth, looked at geological changes at Mount Etna over the past 130,000 years. The volcano switched from a shield volcano to a cluster of stratovolcanoes during that period, he said.
Wildfires
Raging wildfires leave at least two dead in Oklahoma
Wildfires which have killed two people in western Oklahoma could spread and more could ignite as wind gusts of up to 50 miles per hour whip an area where scant rain has fallen in five months, fire and forestry officials said.
U.S. COLORADO This Map Shows Where All the Colorado Wildfires Are Burning
Colorado is facing extreme wildfire conditions this week, the National Weather Service in Boulder warned Tuesday. The service said critical to extreme fire weather conditions will develop throughout the Denver metro area, Palmer Divide, South Park, southern Foothills and the east-central and southeast Plains, and that new fires can start and rapidly grow.
Kansas Wildfire Disaster
Kansas Governor Jeff Colyer has issued a disaster declaration in response to a series of wildfires in the western part of the state.
Much-needed rain arrives in drought-, fire-stricken Southwest
A disturbance that developed in the high Plains is bringing a mix of rain and snow to parts of Colorado, and heavy rain and strong storms to parts of the central and southern Plains on Saturday. The storms are also bringing beneficial rain to parts of the drought-stricken Southwest.
Unravelling a scientific mystery: Could wildfire ash end up in our fish dinner?
Scientists are studying how of ash produced by wildfire may affect the marine ecosystem.
Wildfires rage in several states with homes destroyed, neighborhoods at risk
Millions face elevated to extreme fire conditions, as crews battle blazes in Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado, where dozens of homes have been destroyed and thousands of acres burnt.
Forecasters warn of rare, life-threatening wildfire weather
Forecasters warned of dangerous, life-threatening wildfire conditions in parts of the Southwest and Southern Plains on Tuesday, as a forestry official warned firefighters battling a terrifying deadly blaze in Oklahoma that it would be a ‘‘historically critical day.’’
Boulder Sues Exxon Over Climate Change: Wildfires, Droughts and Water Are a Few Reasons Why
The city and Boulder County joined San Miguel County, home to the ski slopes of Telluride, in suing two fossil fuel companies—ExxonMobil and Suncor—over the costs of dealing with climate change.
Climate Change, Wildfire, and the Future of Forests
Researchers studied 1,500 Rocky Mountain forests that had been burned by wildfires. They found that most of the woods aren't recovering after the blaze—and in some cases, they're not returning at all. The culprit? A warming planet.
State of disaster declared to fight drought and wildfire
Extensive drought and wildfire threats statewide led Governor Greg Abbott to declare a threat of imminent disaster for at least 72 counties, including many in the South Plains.
Wildfire potential, April through July
“Wildfire activity will increase across portions of the nation in April. The central and southern Great Plains continue to experience significant wildland fire activity. While the activity observed is Above Normal, overall trends follow a traditional seasonal progression which keeps the fire potential elevated across these areas in early April but begins a westward shift further into the Southwest by month’s end. Periods of concern will be wind events coupled with low humidities that impact fire activity. Other areas of concern are the Florida Peninsula, eastern Georgia and South Carolina where drought conditions linger. Elevated potential exists across coastal portions of Southern California where drought continues and across portions of eastern Montana where very dry residual soil conditions exist. Pregreenup fire activity could elevate during westerly flow wind events.
Wildfire loss in March three times higher than last year
Wildfire has gutted more than 300 hectare of forest cover in Uttarakhand in March, the damage in a month being three times higher than that of last year, official data shows. On March 29, forest fire destroyed computers, a printer, biometrics system and other infrastructure of a government high school at Chaukhutiya in Almora district. Students were in the playground when the incident happened. According to forest department figures, 330.646-hectare forest cover has been damaged since February 15 when the official fire season began, leading to an estimated revenue loss of Rs 5,87,155. In February, only 31 hectare was burnt posing a loss of Rs 33,525. Nearly 300 hectare has been lost within 29 days this month, causing a loss of Rs 5,53,630. Last year, 100.35 hectare was damaged in March posing a loss of Rs 1,72,963. In 2016, when the state reported the worst wildfire, only 43.15 hectare was burnt in March with a loss of Rs 52,475, forest department data shows.
Landslides
Landslide In China Kills 9, Several Others Injured
A landslide hit a village in North China and ended up trapping and killing 9 people Monday morning. Several others were reportedly injured
Several dead in Muranga landslide
A deadly landslide in Muranga county killed a couple and two children after their home was swept away.
15 landslides need to be cleared on Kuhio Hwy. for it to reopen
Crews from the state, county, and community continue to push through piles of mud, rock, and debris in an effort to reopen a portion of Kuhio Highway that's been shut down for a week. The affected stretch of road has cut off the communities of Wainiha and Haena from Hanalei and the rest of Kauai. At least 15 landslides need to be cleared.
Stress, anxiety and costs' for landslip zone residents fighting to stay in their homes
An appeal brought by residents battling to remain in their homes after a series of landslips in Ystalyfera will come down to whether they face an "imminent risk of serious harm".
Floods
Rohingya refugees face fresh turmoil as monsoon rains could wash away temporary homes and spread disease
Aid workers are scrambling to train emergency response teams as the coming monsoon season looms over Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, threatening to bring potentially fatal flooding and landslides.
Flooding in Fiji claims at least four lives after Tropical Cyclone Josie
Tropical Cyclone Josie has caused severe flooding in parts of Fiji, with four people reported dead and one missing. Fiji Village reported four people were dead, while a 19-year-old man was still missing after he was washed away by floodwaters. The category one cyclone is moving southeast, away from Fiji, but heavy rain and flooding is still affecting the country. The Fiji National Disaster Management Office tweeted about 9.45am NZT that water levels were slowly receding, and roads were starting to reopen.
Day of dramatic weather in Kashmir Valley
Marking the first major wet spell of the season, rains continued to lash plains of Jammu and Kashmir on Friday with Qazigund in southern Kashmir recording the highest rainfall at 31.4 mm by Friday afternoon.
Evacuations ordered in parts of B.C.'s Okanagan due to flooding, mudslides
Multiple evacuation orders have been issued to residents of British Columbia’s Okanagan region due to threats of mudslides and flooding.
Climate change: Ganges might swell to twice its capacity, flooding northern India
Several countries across the world face a serious risk of food shortage if temperatures go beyond the Paris Accords' agreed upon two degree Celsius rise over the next few decades. The biggest risk to food sustainability comes from floods and droughts. A new study carried out by the University of Exeter, has found that conditions might get so severe that rivers like Ganges and Amazon will likely swell up, flooding large regions. Ganges runs through China, Nepal, Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh. Over 630 million people live along this river and in the coming century, that number will only get bigger.
India at risk of food shortage due to climate change, says study
Warming is expected to lead to wetter conditions on average - with floods putting food production at risk - but agriculture could also be harmed by more frequent and prolonged droughts in some areas, researchers have said.
Super typhoon may flood one third of central Tokyo
One third of central Tokyo could be left under water and nearly four million people affected if a super typhoon strikes the capital causing storm surges, a new study from local authorities has warned. The Tokyo metropolitan government unveiled its first estimate of the Japanese capital's vulnerability to damage from typhoon-related high tidal waves Friday, as risks of storm damage continue to increase globally. According to the report, 212 square kilometres (85 square miles), or one third of the capital's central area, could be inundated to a maximum depth of 10 metres (33 feet) if a super typhoon creates high tidal waves. A severe event of this type would be estimated to affect as many as 3.95 million people in the city, flooding business and entertainment districts as well as major railway stations, the local government said

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