"Environmental Hazards Newsletter" 9th Jul 2018
News Highlights
Hurricanes and Cyclones
This Atlantic hurricane season may be quieter than expected, and no one is complaining
Conditions in the Atlantic are showing signs that the 2018 hurricane season might be quieter than forecasters initially thought.
Just 4 Hurricanes in 2018 Predicted by Most Accurate Forecasting Model for 2017
A University of Arizona model predicts that the number of hurricanes this year will be below average, with just four, two of which will reach Category 3, 4 or 5 status.
Prospects for busy 2018 hurricane season diminished by cooler Atlantic: Klotzbach
“Prospects for a second straight busy hurricane season have diminished markedly,” according to Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State University tropical forecasting team, as cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures point to “profound impacts” for the 2018 hurricane season.
The water in the tropical Atlantic is the coldest in decades. That may stymie hurricane season.
Temperatures at the surface of the tropical Atlantic Ocean have become remarkably colder than normal. The cold water could have profound impacts on this year’s hurricane season, since warm water is the fuel source for tropical storms.
The World"s Largest Sand Desert Is Covered in Lakes After Tropical Cyclone Mekunu
When Tropical Cyclone Mekunu rumbled over Oman in May, it dumped torrential rainfall on the city of Salalah. Now, a new satellite image reveals the extent of unloaded rainfall in the nearby desert of Rub’ al-Khali, the world’s largest sand desert and (normally) one of the driest places on Earth. The image, taken by NASA’s Operational Land Imager after heavy rains in the region shows water lakes in the flat lowlands between the sand dune tops.
More reasons than ever to be hurricane-ready | Opinion
Guest columnist Albert B. Kelly explains in this opinion piece highlights, in an analysis of U.S. hurricanes since 1980, how the number of hurricanes with winds above 124 mph (Category 3) has doubled, while the number of hurricanes with winds reaching 155 mph (Category 5) has tripled. Because of these changes in frequency and severity, the article goes on to cite Penn State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who thinks a "Category 6" is needed to the scale as a way to distinguish even stronger storms.
Superensemble hurricane model hailed as "one of FSU greatest contributions to science"
The National Hurricane Center in Miami is ground zero for tracking tropical disturbances. Among the models used at the centre is the Florida State University Superensemble, a breakthrough forecasting system created in 1998 by T.N. Krishnamurti, a meteorology professor who became internationally known as the “Father of Modern Tropical Meteorology.” The FSU Superensemble quickly gained a reputation for its accuracy in predicting storm tracks. “The development of the Superensemble Hurricane model is one of FSU’s greatest contributions to science,” said Gary Ostrander, FSU’s vice president for research.
Extreme Temperatures
UK weather: Heatwave causes railway slowdown and wildfires, and it will get even hotter until weekend
As scorching temperatures are set to last until the weekend, Network Rail has deployed “extreme weather action teams” in readiness for even warmer conditions following a peak of 30.1C (86.1F) on Monday, which was the hottest day of the year so far. The announcement came as wildfires took hold in parts of northern England and the Met Office issued its first “yellow” health warning for heatwave conditions of 2018 from Tuesday until Thursday evening.
Swansea firefighters battle wildfires in Langland
Fire crews are battling wildfires across Swansea as thousands descended on the city for the Wales Airshow. The fire on Langland Bay can be seen from Swansea Bay which is packed with people watching a vast array of aircraft in full flight.
Wildfires force evacuations in heat-stricken Colorado
Bone-dry conditions and scorching temperatures hampered firefighters Thursday as they battled two wildfires in Colorado — one that has burned structures in the southern part of the state and another that has forced evacuations near Rocky Mountain National Park.
Western states brace for most severe wildfire outbreak since 2012
In a briefing to members of Congress, Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke and Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue shared predictions of above-average potential for significant wildfire activity this summer across the West. Some states are bracing for the worst severe wildfire outbreak since 2012, fearing it may eclipse even that historic fire year.
More than 50 wildfires rage amid persistently hot, dry conditions
At least 52 wildfires are burning throughout the United States, mostly out West, including Alaska. Very hot, very dry conditions have ignited dozens of fires from Texas to Oregon to California, forcing numerous evacuations.
CO2 Can Directly Impact Extreme Weather, Research Suggests
Rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere may have direct effects on the climate system, according to scientists. In other words, even if global temperatures stay locked in at a certain point, higher CO2 concentrations could continue to affect the planet.
Earthquakes
Japan earthquake: Strong tremor shakes Osaka, killing at least 4 ... - CNN
A strong earthquake hit the Japanese city of Osaka during morning rush hour Monday, killing at least four people and injuring 214
http://www.cnn.com/2018/06/17/asia/japan-osaka-quake/index.html
Additional sources: (Bloomberg) (Time Magazine) (Sky News) (BBC) (The Japan Times) (The Economic Times)
Additional sources: (Bloomberg) (Time Magazine) (Sky News) (BBC) (The Japan Times) (The Economic Times)
No, World Cup Fans Didn"t Trigger an Earthquake. Here"s Why.
t 11:35 am, when Hirving Lozano scored the game-winning goal at a match in Russia, seismometers in Mexico City picked up a spike in seismic activity. Mexico’s Institute of Geological and Atmospheric Research claims these tremors were caused by thousands of soccer fans jumping up and down in celebration, but some scientists are not so sure.
Site of the next major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault?
Many researchers hypothesize that the southern tip of the 1300-km-long San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) could be the nucleation site of the next major earthquake on the fault, yet geoscientists cannot evaluate this hazard until the location and geometry of the fault zone is documented.
San Andreas Fault: Scientists Find "Slow Earthquakes" That Could Trigger More Destructive Quakes
Researchers from Arizona State University (ASU) found that instead of a smooth and steady motion, the San Andrea fault is marked by small “stick-and-slip” movements—sometimes referred to as “slow earthquakes”, which release energy over a period of hours to months, rather than seconds to minutes like a typical quake. These slow earthquakes often go completely unnoticed by people, however, they have the potential to trigger larger, more destructive earthquakes, according to the researchers.
World"s largest offshore-earthquake research centre to open in Halifax
Scientists from universities across the country are working to open the world's largest offshore-earthquake research centre in Halifax within the next two years. The new lab will take in data from more than 100 sensors placed offshore to carry out monitoring.
5.2-magnitude earthquake in parts of Punjab
A 5.2-magnitude earthquake struck parts of Punjab on Sunday evening. Tremors were felt in Faisalabad, Multan, Bahawalpur, Uch Sharif and DG Khan. The epicentre of the earthquake was 42 kilometres west of DG Khan with a depth of 10 km, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) said.
Magnitude 5.2 earthquake rocks northeastern Taiwan
A magnitude 5.2 earthquake shook residents in northeastern Taiwan's Yilan County on June 16). The epicenter of the earthquake was situated 9.2 kilometers East-Southeast of Yilan County Hall and was measured at a depth of 62.3 kilometers.
Underwater fiber-optic cables could moonlight as earthquake sensors
The global network of seafloor cables could also serve as underwater earthquake detectors, according to researchers. It’s a very exciting proposition,” says Barbara Romanowicz, a seismologist at the University of California, Berkeley and the Collège de France in Paris.
Almost all seismic stations around the world are based on land, leaving many oceanic earthquakes undetected. Harnessing the million-plus kilometers of underwater fiber-optic cables to monitor seafloor earthquakes would be “a great step forward” for studying Earth’s interior, Romanowicz says.
Doubt cast on the predictive value of earthquake foreshocks
A new study questions previous findings of the value of foreshocks as warning signs that a big earthquake is coming, instead of showing them to be indistinguishable from ordinary earthquakes.
Volcanic Activity
New Zealand"s Mount Taranaki "almost certain" to erupt
A civil defence plan for New Zealand’s North Island found the popular Mount Taranaki, about four hours from Wellington, was “almost certain” to erupt in the next 50 years.
Lava From Kilauea"s Eruption In Hawaii Is Flowing Faster Than You Can Run
The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reports that "standing waves" were visible in a channel of lava flowing at speeds up to 17 miles per hour. Of course, the eruption slows down as it spreads out, forming so-called "pahoehoe" flows that creep along. But it's important to know just how fast the stuff can move because there's no reason a channel can't suddenly change. Running at 17 mph would be a pretty fast sprint for a person that's in good athletic shape. You could cover a 100 meter dash in about 13 seconds at that rate, provided you're on a nice flat and even track. So to be able to escape a close-range, full-speed lava flow coming right at you, you'd need to run at full-speed the other direction and your full speed had better be on par with the fastest people you know.
Volcanic Eruptions: A Complex and Largely Overlooked Risk
Volcanic eruptions are complex phenomena that may affect populations and economies in ways we may not be familiar with. Large volcanic eruptions can spew ash spreading hundreds or even thousands of kilometers; and deposited ash may damage ...
Which Volcanoes Are Most Overdue for Eruption?
Like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions are almost impossible to predict. Scientists aren’t at the stage yet where they can reliably tell when an eruption is imminent, but they’re steadily getting there. What’s more, the suggestion that some volcanoes are more “overdue” than others is a notion that resides in the eye of the beholder.
Hawaii"s Volcano Is Literally Erupting Gems
Hawaii's Kilauea volcano has been fiercely erupting for well over a month. Now, residents are finding little green gems that have fallen out of the sky during Kilauea's eruption. The green gems are olivine crystals, a common mineral found in Hawaii's lava. At jewelry quality, the mineral is called peridot. As the volcano erupts, it blasts apart molten lava, allowing for green olivine minerals to be separated from the rest of the melt and fall as tiny gemstones.
Guatemala warns of falling ash as volcanic activity picks up
Guatemalan officials warned of falling ash from the Fuego volcano late on Thursday and urged caution with flights as the Central American country recovers from devastating eruptions that have killed at least 109 people.
Volcanic activity, declining ocean oxygen triggered mass extinction of ancient organisms
Global climate change, fueled by skyrocketing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, is syphoning oxygen from today's oceans at an alarming pace, so fast that scientists aren't entirely sure how the planet will respond.
Is Volcanic Activity on the Rise? High-Profile Eruptions Don"t Signal Increase in Volcanism.
Are volcanoes actually more active than usual, or are we just hearing more about their activity than usual? It turns out to be the latter, according to Ed Venzke, who manages the database of Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program.
Wildfires
Wildfires scorch drought-stricken West
A fast-moving brush fire destroyed homes in Utah, while more than 3,000 people in Colorado and Wyoming fled multiple wildfires on Wednesday.
http://www.nbcnews.com/slideshow/wildfires-scorch-drought-stricken-west-n883261
Additional sources: (NBC News) (NPR)
Additional sources: (NBC News) (NPR)
4 big myths about wildfire
Wildfires are growing larger and more destructive than ever before due to climate change, drought, a lack of funding for prevention programs and other factors. This makes wildfire an especially pressing issue. Unfortunately, it is frequently misunderstood. Especially with more and more people moving and building homes closer to wildlands, it is vital that we separate wildfire myths and facts.
Flash flooding feared as Colorado wildfires rage
At least 18 large wildfires burning in eight Western states have torched nearly 155,000 acres. Near Durango, Colorado, more than 1,000 firefighters are trying to control a drought-fueled fire in the San Juan National Forest.
Goats hired to help prevent deadly wildfires in Portugal
Dozens of herds have been hired by the government to destroy the thick grasses that make wildfires a regular occurrence.event.
Hundreds of firefighters battling 250 acre wildfire in Laguna Beach.
A wind-driven brush fire has consumed 250 acres and was threatening structures near a canyon between Aliso Viejo and Laguna Beach.
Landslides
Landslides after monsoon rains; 4 dead in Arunachal, road blockage hits Amarnath yatra
Rains lashed several parts of the country triggering landslides in some hill states, which killed at least four ITBP personnel in Arunachal Pradesh and affected the Amarnath pilgrimage in Jammu and Kashmir, as monsoon covered the entire length and breadth of India two weeks ahead of its schedule.
Floods, landslides in northern Vietnam kill 7, leave 12 missing
Flash floods and landslides triggered by torrential rains have killed at least seven people and left 12 missing in northern Vietnam since Saturday, the government’s Disaster Management Authority said on Monday.
Landslides and Flooding Threaten 200,000 Rohingya Refugees as Monsoon Rains Lash Into Bangladesh Camps
As monsoon rains bare down on sprawling Rohingya camps in Bangladesh, the U.N. warns that some 200,000 refugees sheltering on the swampland are at risk from landslides and flooding. Half of those threatened by the rising waters and requiring relocation are children.
Landslides claim 13 lives in SE Bangladesh
At least 13 people including a Rohingya refugee were killed and many dwellings damaged in rain-triggered landslides in two districts in southeastern Bangladesh. Three incidents of landslides claimed at least 11 lives alone in Rangamati district, some 391 km from capital Dhaka, when huge chunks of mud collapsed on their houses, said the local official who declined to be named.
Floods
Coral reefs save billions of dollars worldwide by preventing floods
Coral reefs act as a natural flood protection barrier from powerful ocean storms, but with reefs in danger around the world, much of this valuable flood protection could be lost. A study pinpoints the value of coral reefs, finding coastal flood-related damages around the world would be twice what they are now if not for this natural flood barrier.
Flooding And Rising Seas Threaten America’s Oldest Farmland
Maryland’s Eastern Shore has been impacted by climate change, the phenomenon is hurting farmers in the region. Kate Tully, an agro-ecologist with the University of Maryland believes that the Atlantic Ocean is heating up and it’s expanding causing higher tides and more flooding.
7 killed and 12 missing in floods, landslides in northern Vietnam
Flash floods and landslides triggered by torrential rains have killed at least seven people and left 12 missing in northern Vietnam since last Saturday (June 23).
Days of torrential rain lead to Texas worst flooding since Hurricane Harvey
Days of torrential rain have led to widespread flooding in southeastern Texas, the state's worst floods since Hurricane Harvey last year.
Flooding kills at least 18 in Ivory Coast Abidjan
At least 18 people were killed by flooding in Ivory Coast’s commercial capital Abidjan on Tuesday after intense rainfall overnight, authorities said.
60 Sinkholes open in Michigan after flash floods strike upper midwest
The upper Midwest experienced a deluge of rainfall and flash flooding over the weekend that caused 60 sinkholes in Michigan and other damage.
Assam flood toll is 11, over 5 lakh affected
Flood fury continued in Assam on Monday with two more deaths reported from Barak Valley, taking the flood-related death toll to 11, even as over five lakh people were affected in six districts.
Tropical storm floods southern China
Tropical Storm 05W, known as Ewiniar, has deluged the Chinese island of Hainan and the neighboring coastal region of mainland China. Rainfall totals of 50 to 100 millimetres were widespread across the island and 112mm was reported in Dongfang.
Flooding from high tides has doubled in the US in just 30 years
The frequency of coastal flooding from high tides has doubled in the US in just 30 years, with communities near shorelines warned that the next two years are set to be punctuated by particularly severe inundations, as ocean levels continue to rise amid serious global climate change concerns.
